Friday, 7 August 2015

Don't Try To Guess Where Villa Will Finish - It's Impossible!

Let's get straight to the point here - no one knows what sort of a season Aston Villa are going to have. And it's extremely difficult to even try to guess. However, I see us being tipped for relegation in every Premier League season preview that I look at. And I'm not convinced.

For the past few years, it's been pretty clear that Villa were in for a long hard season. Last season certainly, there was little cause for optimism. A shift in transfer policy had bought in a few more experienced players rather than the investment in youth which hadn't worked for the previous 3 seasons. But in truth, no one was excited at the prospect of the likes of Kieran Richardson and Philippe Senderos. Joe Cole was bought in also, and I tried my hardest to convince myself that he would finally be over his injuries and he could be the man to unlock defences. Carlos Sanchez was a player that did invoke some excitement, having just completed a successful World Cup with an exciting looking Colombia. But his quality as an enforcer in the Premier League failed to materialise.

On top of this, the fans had already been turning on Paul Lambert since the back end of the previous campaign. After being given a generous couple of seasons in which we hoped he would start playing some of that attractive attacking football that he did at Norwich, we were treated instead to the most inept and insipid display of football that the club had ever seen (a bold statement, but one which the stats back up as we managed to break goal drought records, least home points records and winless streak records left right and centre).

We knew it was a season of struggle ahead. And, as I've just alluded to, the biggest struggle was to carry on watching the withered, horrible football on show. I had supported Lambert, and even halfway through the season when he was under immense pressure, I still tried hard to keep faith with him and defended him, much to the derision of others. Purely because of the fact that I couldn't see anyone else who could do better with the players contained in the squad. There was no one really available, so in my eyes it could be a risk. We had chanted for this guy to come to Villa when he was still manager of Norwich, so we had obviously seen something in him. These streaks of 4, 5, 6 games without scoring, they would pass.

And then it became clear. Villa travelled to Hull City, on a cold Tuesday night in February. One of our main relegation rivals. A game we couldn't afford to lose.

Of course, we lost 2-0. And it was an absolute embarrassment of a performance. In such a vital game, there was no fight whatsoever. No passion. Not even the basics were there. It was a measure of how awful Hull were that they only scored twice.

Villa dropped into the bottom three, leapfrogged by Hull, who were so bad that they eventually did get relegated.

That's when it became apparent. Lambert HAD to go. My reasoning that no one else was available was irrelevant. Sacking him was completely risk free because it literally couldn't get any worse. We weren't scoring goals, let alone winning games. We'd have been just as well off not turning up for games and conceding a 3-0 defeat as penalty for doing so.

The very next day, the Villa board took the same decision and he was gone. Tim Sherwood came in, got us scoring some goals and winning some games and there was a real buzz around the place again. As we know we survived.

Which leads us back to the present day, and the fact that no one knows what sort of Aston Villa we are going to get this season.

It isn't like previous seasons. There are so many possibilities. So many unknown variables.

The players are a big contribution to this uncertainty. The loss of Christian Benteke cannot be underestimated. If fit for the whole season, it was a guaranteed 15 goals at least. Priceless to a team battling relegation. Fabian Delph, for all the vitriol surrounding the manner of his departure is also a loss to us, although nowhere near as much as Benteke and his goals, and is certainly replaceable. Media outlets will continue this dissection by claiming the 'spine has been removed' from Villa, as Ron Vlaar has also departed. I would call this extremely lazy journalism personally, and any Villa fan will tell you that Vlaar, although our best centre back previously, will not be missed. His injuries, unreliability and poor form is certainly not considered a loss at this present time.

However, let's go along with this and say that yes, on the face of it, the spine has been taken away from the team. As several people have pointed out to me, it was a spine which may as well have had rickets for all the good it's done us. We haven't exactly been tearing things up with those players as our backbone.

The argument is of course, if we are that bad with those players, imagine how atrocious we're going to be without them.

And this is where the excitement and uncertainty starts to build. Because, of the players we have signed, it's really only with Scott Sinclair that we know (or think we know) what we're going to get. He looked pretty good in his loan spell last year and has followed it up with a great pre-season. In my opinion an excellent signing for the £2.5 million we've paid.

Micah Richards, for all his history with Manchester City, is as much an unknown as anyone else we've signed. Is this fresh start going to work for him? Is he hungry enough to play consistently at the level at which he used to? We don't know. All we know is that, potentially, we have another exciting signing. The talent is there, and if he replicates even 80% of what he showed as a youngster, he'll be a great signing on a free. He's certainly got enough of an incentive to play for, with England crying out for a commanding centre-half.

And then come the French invasion. Jordan Amavi has looked excellent in pre-season. As has Idrissa Gueye. I haven't heard anything other than the highest of praise regarding Jordan Veretout and that comes from well respected critics which bodes well. Jordan Ayew doesn't have the best of reputations, and is perhaps the one player who has been considered as perhaps being overpriced, but at that same undoubtedly has talent if he applies himself. But one thing applies to them all - we just don't know how they are going to perform and adapt. We know they look good, and have quality. But until they play in the Premier League, we won't know for sure.

For me, the most interesting signing is Rudy Gestede. I have spoken to a couple of Blackburn fans and I was amazed at how passionate they were when speaking about him and unnervingly convinced he will step up and do well. To them, Jordan Rhodes was second fiddle to Gestede. Likewise, people associated with Blackburn are convinced that he will be a bargain buy at £6million. It certainly fills with confidence having those endorsements, however, one outstanding issue remains - he is, again, unknown at this level!

Undoubtedly though, these are all exciting signings.

For me, the biggest unknown is Tim Sherwood himself. This is a guy who will either be brilliant, or will be found out by Christmas. However, until, and if, that happens, this guy deserves massive credit for managing to get positivity back into Villa Park after Lambert stunk the place out with negative tactics for so long. No one knows if Tim is a wizard or a wally. I, along with the vast majority of Villa fans, are learning towards wizard. The media are firmly in the wally camp. And to be honest, I find this incredibly frustrating. This is a guy who has come in to management recently and has a pretty enviable record so far. We know he likes to put forward his win percentage. But really, why the hell shouldn't he?! 50% at Spurs and currently 43.75% at Villa. I'm happy to blow this trumpet for him, because that works out to 47.73% overall. That is in a total of 44 games. If in a season you win, say 45% of your games (less than Tim's ratio) then that is 51.3 points. An achievement not to be sniffed at, and an achievement Villa fans will bite your hands off for right now. The argument is that he hasn't done it over a full season, he hasn't brought in his own players and has only come into jobs when players are receptive to a kick up the backside after being thoroughly de-motivated by his predecessors. But for some reason, this is a reason to belittle Tim. If this was any other English manager just starting out on their career, there would be an absolute embarrassment of articles about him being the new saviour of English football and the next England manager. Quite frankly, he is getting most things right on and off the pitch.

Tactics Tim is a moniker thrown at him and is meant as derogatory. But I will argue he knows what he's doing most of the time. For sure, he showed up Brendan Rodgers in the F.A Cup semi final. He might make mistakes, but he is fresh to management so he'll work things out as he goes, like everyone else in every other single walk of life. He likes attacking football and maybe isn't as concerned with keeping clean sheets. To be honest, I imagine that suits most Villa fans down to the ground after the dross that has been served up for the last 5 years.

Tim is over the top. He's eccentric. And I'm sure he plays a game with himself to see how many clichés he can fit into each press conference. But my God, is he a breath of fresh air, not just for Aston Villa, but for those post match interviews with all the other robot managers and players trying to recite the words that they've been taught to spew forth each and every single week.

In my opinion, Tim has done an excellent job of re-investing the money from the sales of Benteke and Delph. He has also done an excellent job of bringing in yet more funds by cutting loose players such as Andi Weimann, Matt Lowton and incredibly, Yacouba Sylla. Massive wages have been shifted with Darren Bent and Shay Given now gone. When you look at a team like Spurs who completely blew their Gareth Bale money, Tim has seemingly rebuilt the squad at Villa. And for what he should be given absolute credit for, is that, currently at least, our net spend has not exceeded what we have recouped. Time will tell whether Villa have blown their pot of money. I find it difficult to see anything other than wise re-investment and a ultimate overall strengthening of the squad.

I, for one, have an optimism going into this season. And I hope by the end of it, Tim will finally get the respect he deserves.

I don't know where Villa will finish. But at least there is an optimism and excitement and a fresh feel around Villa Park for once. And right now, that is more than we've had for a very long time.